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• Rouble is losing positions again in pairing with USD and EUR [11/10/2011]
• NZD: New Zealand Dollar is descending [11/10/2011]
• AUD: sales of Australian Dollar do not subside [11/10/2011]
• JPY: Japanese Yen remains in the narrow trade range [11/10/2011]

AUD: After the ascend Australian Dollar has shifted to decline

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate has turned back to decline.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD has merged with the signal line and is not giving a clear signal today. Stochastic oscillator is giving a pair sell signal.

Forex recommendation: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0000 the pair will go to 1.0050 and 1.0125. if the level of 0.9910 is exceeded, traders’ targets will become the levels of 0.9850 and 0.9810.

The following Australian news was released today:
– CPI in QIV:+0.4% q/q (+2.7% y/y) against the forecast of +0.7% q/q;
– Leading indicators index  Conference Board in November: +0.3% against the forecast of +0.6%.

Weak data on the consumer prices level in Australia caused sales of the AUD, which once again confirms our opinion about weakness of the currency in the medium term.

However, according to Minister of Finance of the country Mr. Swan, CPI will show increase in QI of this year due to the growing dynamics of prices for food. Observers believe that economic consequences of the flooding in the Green Continent have already been noticeable in the results of the current quarter.

As it became known on Monday morning, PPI index in Australia increased by 0.1% on quarterly basis (+2.7% y/y) in QIV. Earlier statistics was multifarious. Thus, import and export prices in Australia fell by 8.1% and 3.8% respectively. However, level of consumer confidence in Australia is estimated not so unequivocally; according to ANZ, consumer confidence in Australia amounted to 117 points in January against the level of 112.2 n December. It is interesting that, as per official data, index of consumer sentiment in Australia fell by 5.7% in January against the growth by 0.2% in December, mostly due to the flooding in the country.

The meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled for 31 January and market will carefully wait for the comments of the RBA head, as the AUD future will depend on them in the short term.  Interest rate in Australia is at the level of 4.75% per annum. RBA meetings in 2011 are scheduled for: 31 January, 28 February, 4 April, 2 may, 6 June, 4 July, 1 August, 5 September, 3 October, 31 October, 5 December.

 

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