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At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate has shifted to growth today, amid stable external environment, after the lingering sales

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and continues to go down, giving a pair sell signal, while volumes are slightly above average. Stochastic Oscillator has reached oversold zone, and is ready for a reversal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0620 the pair will go to1.0635 and 1.0650. If an upward breakdown does not take place the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting of 3 May which was made public today stated that growing Australian Dollar has assisted to curb inflation; while interest rate remains at the previous level of 4.75% per annum. 

The RBA admits that if economic situation will develop according to expectations, interest rate increase will become flagrant necessity.

The minutes of the meeting was vague while describing employment market in the country; it is not clear yet what will be the impact of the growing wages on the tightening of the labor market conditions.  At the same time sentiments of the households and labour market will be important factors for determining dynamics of inflation for the coming years.

It became known at the beginning of the week that finance of the housing construction in Australian fell by 1.5% m/m in March. However it is just a minor factor for the exchange rate formation of the AUD.

At the end of last week, ABS, Australian Bureau of Statistics did not receive authorization for additional funding to assess inflation indicators in the country on a monthly basis instead of existing quarterly basis. Therefore, from all OECD countries only Australia and New Zealand do not release inflationary data on monthly basis. It became known earlier that unemployment rate remained unchanged, at the level of 4.9% in April, and the change in the employment rate in April amounted to -22.1 thousand compared to +37.8 thousand in March. Market did not expect such an unpleasant surprise from the employment sector which, along with investors’ risk aversion in the market, has encouraged ongoing sales of the AUD.

Statistics which was made public earlier showed that trade balance in Australia rose to A$1.74 billion in March against the level of -A$0.08 billion in February. Moody's Investors Service agency gave positive assessment to the data; according to observers of the agency, resolution of the authorities to revert the balance of the state budget to the zone of surplus is well-founded and such attitude supports credit rating of the country, which is at Aaa.

Note that the rise in the indicator was caused by the growth of exports of iron ore and coal and also by the reduction of gasoline imports. Also take not that CPI level in Australia increased by 1.6% on quarterly basis (+3.3% y/y) in QI.

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