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At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continues to weaken at theend of the week, amid risk aversion in the market.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD has returned to the position below the signalline on the side of the negative zone and is not giving a clear signal.Stochastic Oscillator is leaving overbought zone and is shaping a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdownat the level of 1.0210, the pair will go to 1.0200 and 1.0180. Situation inAustralia remains almost unchanged in terms of macro-economic background.

External background is not in favour of the AUD, as due to the expansion of Europeandebt crisis, investors are moving away from the risky positions. According tostatistics released yesterday, business activity index AiG in the service sector of Australia rose to 49.0 points in November against the level of 47.7 points in October. In addition, trade balance amounted to +?$1.38 billion against expectations of   +?$2.0 billion.

Unemployment rate increased to 5.3% inNovember against the forecast of 5.2%.  Employment rate fell by 6 thousandagainst the growth of 16.8 thousand earlier. Economists expected the theincrease of jobs by 10 thousand. The indicator reflects the impact of European debt problems on the Australian economy. Retail sales in Australia increased to the minimum value of +0.2% m/m over 4 months in October. In September the index rose by 0.4%, and by 0.6% in August. It became known earlier that privat esector lending in Australia increased by 0.3% m/m (+3.5% y/y) in November against the growth of 0.2% m/m in October. 

Australian Central Bank noted last week, thatthe country has been fighting against repercussions of European debt crisiswith the help of investment boom: minutes of the last meeting of the ReserveBank of Australia showed that there is no urgent need at the moment in lower ingrate and current steps directed to ease monetary policy is sufficient to support economy. 

Observers believe that lowering of the rateby RBA in December was just a safeguard against external negative factors. 

Consumer sentiment index Westpac-MI fell to94.7 points, -8.3% m/m in December against the value of 103.4 points inNovember. Business confidence index NAB in Australia increased to 1 point in November against zero level in October. This data is positive at the moment ascurrent conditions have stabilized; however levels of business confidence arestill unvaried. It became known earlier that trade balance in Australia fell to +A$1.60 billion in October against expectations of +A$2.0 billion. Slump in the global demand has played its part here as well.

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