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• Rouble is losing positions again in pairing with USD and EUR [11/10/2011]
• NZD: New Zealand Dollar is descending [11/10/2011]
• AUD: sales of Australian Dollar do not subside [11/10/2011]
• JPY: Japanese Yen remains in the narrow trade range [11/10/2011]

AUD: Australian Dollar continues to rise

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continues the growth which started yesterday while maintaining immunity to the negative external background from Egypt.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD, however there is a   tendency where a spread can merge with the signal line thereby, forming a signal to stop active buying in the pair. Stochastic Oscillator continues to move towards overbought zone, indication that long position for the pair AUD/USD will be retained in speculators’ portfolios.

Forex recommendations: purchase up to 1.0100 dollars for the AUD.

On the weekly chart the model of the market movement “head and shoulders” is coming into sight: 1.0225 – a top level, and level 1.0150 – is a line of the left shoulder. Consequently, the reduction of the growing   inertia is caused by the approach of the currency pair to a significant resistance level at 1.0150, after which a reversal downward is more probable.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0000 the pair will go to test the levels of 1.0050 and 1.0090/1.01000.

Today’s meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia has brought the following comments: recovery of economy and infrastructure after the flooding will affect inflation forecast:
-Inflation in the coming year will be in the range of target levels of 2-3%;
- Raw materials prices will remain too high in the short term;
-Final assessment of the flooding impact is premature;
-Recovery from the flooding has not yet affected inflationary forecasts.

The fact that at the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep current interest rate unchanged at the level of 4.75% is an important point. At the same time according to the survey of independent experts the rise of the interest rate to the level of 5.0% is projected until the end of QII, 2011. 

 

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