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The Australian Dollar rate continues to rise at the Forex currency market on Thursday; however due to the decrease of investors’ interest to risk, the rise can be limited. 

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and goes up; volumes are low which indicates the maintenance of the buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator keeps going down in the neutral zone, giving a pair sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0535 the pair will go to 1.0550 and 1.0570. If the level of 1.0510 is exceeded, the target will be the level of 1.0480.

Only minor Australian news was released today: volume of sales of the vehicles increased by 3.4% m/m (+1.9% y/y) in March against the growth by 0.2% m/m in February.

Yesterday Finance Minister of Australia Mr. Swan said that Australian economy is positive and will only benefit from economic growth of the developing countries. He thinks that although IMF has revised GDP forecast downward for Australia, country’s economy continues to recover. Note that IMF research showed that GDP forecast for Australia had been reduced to 3% in 2011 against the previous level of 3.5%. Floods in January partly impacted the revision of the forecast.

As it became known earlier lending in the housing sector fell by 5.6% m/m in February against the decline by 4.5% in January; according to the observers’ estimates the index collapsed due to the floods in the beginning of the year in Australia.

Macro-economic environment remains mixed in Australia. On the one hand unemployment rate reduced to 4.9% in March versus the prior level of 5.0% and employment rate rose by 37.8 thousand last month against the forecast of increase by 24 thousand. Therefore, strong performance in the employment sector pushed the AUD to go upward, instilling investors with the idea that the RBA can resume monetary tightening policy earlier.
On the other hand deficit of trade balance was recorded in the country for the first time since spring 2010 (February -?$205 billion against +A$1.4 billion in January). In addition activity index in the service sector reduced to 46.5 points in March against the value of 48.7 points in February.

According to the data released today level of consumer lending Westpac in Australia increased by 1.2%, to the level of 105.3 points in April against preliminary level of -2.4%. Such positive data has reflected public confidence in the prospects of economy. Following the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia last week it was decided to keep current level of the interest rate unchanged at the level of 4.75% per annum – it is the fourth time already when the RBA does not dare to continue monetary policy tightening.

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