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At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continues to rise steadily on Tuesday – after a slight correction near 28-year highs.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair AUD/USD and is rising, aiming to cross the signal line and break it up, giving a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone, but is set to go down.

Forex recommendations: if buyers’ sentiment for the pair AUD/USD preserves former highs at levels of 1.0315 and 1.0325 will be the target for bulls today.

Remember, that under existing conditions a correction targeting the level of 1.0110 may take place.
Macroeconomic background looks weak for Australia. According to the data released by Australian Housing Industry Association, Newly Built Home Sales rose by 0.6% in February against the increase by 2.4% in January.

The portion of important statistics will come out this week only on Thursday (Retail Sales in February), so the key driver for the pair will be the general external background.

We would remind that leading indicator CB increased by 0.1% in January against the growth by 0.7% in December. It is the best indication for the medium term outlook of Australian economy; although it seems that external background overbalances this information. The data released earlier showed that leading indicators Westpac fell by 0.1% m/m in January while the forecast had been +0.8% m/m. It is a moderately negative sign for the Australian economy.

As noted by the representatives of the Bank of Australia earlier that economy of the country has been growing almost at the level of trend, and current moderately restrictive fiscal policy fits the external situation.

Interest rate is at the level of 4.75% per annum in Australia now. The meetings of RBA in 2011 will be held on 4 April, 2 May, 6 June, 4 July, 1 August, 5 September, 3 October, 31 October, 5 December.

Thereby aussie is set to go down by the end of the week – it is still unclear what tone will take RBA during the meeting on Monday, April 4.

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