Forex Blog
Blog-FX.Com

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continues to decline on Thursday, still being under pressure, since players’ interest to risk is still very low and external background is negative.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD has broken the signal line from top to bottom and maintains a buy signal; volumes are minimal. Stochastic Oscillator has gone to oversold zone and maintains a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9900, the pair will go to 0.9880 and 0.9850.

According to the released statistics, inflationary expectation in Australia reduced to 2.4% in December against preliminary level of 2.5%, as per Melbourne University. Comments of MI stated:”Decline in inflationary expectations reflects consumers’ concern about worsening international situation”.  The decrease in CPI is logically associated with slowdown in the rate economic development.

GDP in Australia rose by 1.0% q/q (+2.5% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of growth of 0.8% on quarterly basis. The data on economic growth in Australia was based on the rise in consumer expenditures and investments in the mining industry. Note that earlier Australian authorities have revised forecast of GDP growth downward, to 3.5% in 2012.  Previous forecast had been at 3.75%

Unemployment rate increased to 5.3% in November against the forecast of 5.2%.  Employment rate fell by 6 thousand against the growth of 16.8 thousand earlier. The indicator reflects the impact of European debt problems on the Australian economy. Retail sales in Australia increased to the minimum value of +0.2% m/m over 4 months in October. In September the index rose by 0.4%, and by 0.6% in August.

Consumer sentiment index Westpac-MI fell to 94.7 points, -8.3% m/m in December against the value of 103.4 points in November. Business confidence index NAB in Australia increased to 1 point in November against zero level in October. This data is positive at the moment as current conditions have stabilized; however levels of business confidence are still unvaried. It became known yesterday that trade balance in Australia fell to +A$1.60 billion in October against expectations of +A$2.0 billion. Slump in the global demand has played its part here as well.

At the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia reported that interest rate was lowered by 25 basis points, to 4.25% per annum. In the follow-up comments the RBA said that currently, inflationary forecast enables to decrease the rate gradually because in 2012-2013 CPI will be probably in the range of 2-3%. The RBA also stressed that crisis in Eurozone and slow down in the Chinese economy adversely affect Australia; in addition, probability of further slowdown in the world economy also intensifies. The next meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be held only in February, so lowering of the rate can be partly explained by the fact that the regulator wanted to secure the situation before summer holidays (according to Australian seasons).

Tags: