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Atthe Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate istraded downward at the end of the week.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD is going up in thepositive area, while volumes are high, and is giving a buy signal. StochasticOscillator has left overbought zone and is going down in the neutral zone,giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdownat the level of 1.0710, the pair will go to 1.0700 and 1.0670.  The pair stilllooks rather overbought.

Rapid growth of the AUD has causedconsiderable overbought in the pair; therefore some correction will be logical.

At the regular meeting this week, the ReserveBank of Australia decided to keep interest rate at the level of 4.25% perannum, while market predicted downward revision of the index by 25 basispoints. According to comments made by RBA, domestic economy is stable andresists external negative pressure from Europe quite well. The head of RBA Mr.Stevens believes that situation in the European economy has slightly improved sinceDecember, although sentiments remain very pessimistic. It is logical that theregulator does not abandon possibility of lowering the rate: Stevens noted thatthe cost of lending can be revised downward if conditions require so. 

Meanwhile, Australian monetary politician Mr.Swan believes that currently, strong rate of the Australian Dollar representsreal threat to local exporters and their incomes. Note that the day beforeyesterday the rate of the pair AUD/USD has reached the highs of August 2011. 

Inflation in the country showed zero growthin Q4 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Consumersentiment index Westpac-MI fell to 94.7 points, -8.3% m/m in December againstthe value of 103.4 points in November. Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m inDecember against the forecast of 0.2%. According to statistics releasedearlier, activity index in the manufacturing sector rose by 1.4% in January, upto 51.6 points, as per AI GROUP estimates. Aggregate activity index Aig in theservice sector increased to 51.9 points in January (+2.9 points) against growthof 1.3 points a month earlier. The index has been growing for the third monthin a row, while major growth in activity is related to households.Nevertheless, AiG noted in the comments that revival in the index took placeonly in three out of nine components of the index. 

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