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• Rouble is losing positions again in pairing with USD and EUR [11/10/2011]
• NZD: New Zealand Dollar is descending [11/10/2011]
• AUD: sales of Australian Dollar do not subside [11/10/2011]
• JPY: Japanese Yen remains in the narrow trade range [11/10/2011]

AUD: Australian Dollar determines movement direction

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate goes round in a circle, plunging down from time to time, trying to determine movement direction. 

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD, however it started to decline, giving ground for a pair sell signal. Stochastic oscillator has come out of the oversold zone and is giving a pair buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0050 the pair will go to 1.0075 and 1.0200. In case of breakdown at the level of 1.0000, traders’ targets will be the levels of 0.9960 and 0.9910.

In general, morning news about Chinese inflation level which was below expectation became a factor of support for the AUD today. Therefore, a stress associated with new measures to cool the economy of Celestial Empire was relieved partly. As we know, Australian economy is closely connected with Chinese economy, due to strong commercial ties.

The data released on Monday showed that mortgage lending rose by 2.1% on monthly basis in December against the growth by 2.5% m/m in November. In general, the AUD did not pay much attention to this data, and started to increase correction.

The head of the Reserve Bank of Australia Glenn Stevens noted that he expected stabilization of the national economy, due to which, interest rate would remain unchanged for some time. He also said that economic growth of the Australian economy could be higher, that the forecast, despite negative impact of the natural disaster, that befell on the country at the beginning of the year. 

Stevens believes in the support from strong economies of India, China, the USA, and risks – from the European economies.

According to HSBC observers, the speech of the head of the RBA did not break new ground to the market: Central Bank is satisfied with the pace of economy and mining sector seems to be a driver for the recovery. It is not excluded that discussions about the rate increase will start as soon as the regulator gets familiarized with the CPI index for the QI.

 

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