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At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate declines on Monday in response of decreasing interest in risk among investors.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD has broken through the signal line from bottom to top this week, and is now in the positive area, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is coming out of the overbought zone and starting to shape a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0510, the pair will go to 1.0500 and 1.0480. If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

Macro-economic background in Australia remains almost unchanged on Monday. Current rise in AUD is explained by investors’ active interest in risk which led the currency to two-month highs. Threfore, today’s correction is quite logical.

The data released earlier showed that consumer confidence WESTPAC in Australia rose by 0.4% m/m, to the level of 97.2 points in October. As noted by monetary politician Evans it is possible that the rate will go down in November, since low growth of the index indicates general pessimistic sentiment.

Unemployment rate in Australia declined to 5.2% in September versus the level of 5.3% in August. This data demonstrated dynamics for the first time since this March. Employment rate rose by 20.4 thousand last month, while analytics expected the growth of not more than 10 thousand. As noted in the Bureau of Statistics in Sydney, coal mining companies hire staff to meet demand for raw materials from China and India.

According to the data released earlier, CPI in Australia rose by 0.6% q/q (+3.5% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of growth by 0.5% on quarterly basis. At the same time, inflation increased by 0.9% on quarterly basis in Q2; slowdown in CPI is obvious. It is worth noting that seasonally-weighted CPI rose by 0.3% (it is being tracked by RBA). Growth of inflation has been minimal since Q3 in 1997. It is possible now that at the meeting on 1 November the RBA will decrease the rate from the current 4.75% per annum.
 
Business confidence NAB in Q3 amounted -4 points while in Q3; while the index had been at the level of +5 points in Q2. According to observers’ estimates the level of employment, sales and corporate profit in the country has dropped considerably. Business conditions in the three- month term amounted +5 points against +10 points previously and amounted to level of +18 points on annual basis against prior +27 points. Sharp decline in the indicator kicked off a quarter earlier, is still going on.

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