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The Australian Dollar rate goes down at the Forex currency market on Monday which looks logical after rapid growth by three figures last week.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair AUD/USD, however it has reversed earlier and continues to give a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is reversing in the oversold zone and gives ground for shaping a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0710, the pair will go to 1.0700 and 1.7680.

As it became known today, level of retail sales in Australia fell by 0.6% m/m in May against the growth by 1.2% in April. The data is negative: reduction in the buyers’ interest indicates cautious attitude to economic outlook.According to the data released earlier, consumer confidence index Westpac in Australia fell by 2.6% m/m, to 101.2 points in June against preliminary forecast of decline by 1.3%, to 103.9 points.

In addition, a number of begun construction in Australia increased by 3.1% q/q in Q1, while the forecast had been -0.6%. It became known yesterday, that inflation expectations have remained at the level of May at 3.3% q/q in June. At the same time activity index in the manufacturing sector of Australia increased by 5.2 points in June, to the level of 52.9 points.

Thus, the index has exceeded the meaningful standard of 50 points and is now giving a positive indication.Vice president of the Reserve Bank of Australia Mr. Low, stressed earlier that special efforts are required to maintain low and stable level of inflation. According to him previous growth of CPI was attributed mostly to the external factors and influence of the currencies’ exchange rates was insignificant.He also noted that very little unused spare capacity is left in the economy, and the upward pressure on inflation was caused by such facts as labour costs and growing prices for utilities.

Minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia was released earlier; the document stressed that inflationary prospect in the country suggests further tightening; however recent macro-data does not encourage the rise in the rates. “Current inflation rate is partly due to the deflationary effects of the rise in interest rate and slowdown in the increase of expenditure for labour force,” stressed the document. The AUD fell amid such background, since investors did not like uncertainty in the views of the RBA.A meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be held tomorrow, on Tuesday.

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