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At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continues to decrease on Monday: investors are risk aversion and close positions in the pair due to the deterioration in the external environment.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD has merged with the signal line and is not giving a signal. Stochastic Oscillator reversed in the neutral zone and goes down, giving a sell signal. 

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0320, the pair will go to 1.0300 and 1.0270. If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

It became known today that trade balance in Australia was at the level of +A$1.83 billion in July against the forecast of +A$1.9 billion, which is slightly better than the data in June, however weaker than predicted. Obviously external background puts pressure on the economy of New Zealand.

At the meeting last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% per annum, as expected. In the follow-up comments the head of the RBA Glen Stevens noted that “medium term economic prospects look worse that it had been expected a few months earlier. Global financial markets demonstrated severe instability”. The situation with the rate seems logical amid such background.  “The RBA Committee decided that the most viable option will be to maintain current course of the monetary policy. At the next meeting the RBA will continue to carefully analyze both the prospects for economic growth and inflation in Australia, –said Stevens.

The pause in the policy of monetary tightening, maintained by the RBA, has been already going on for 9 months and it is possible that it will continue for a couple of months. 

Last week was very eventful for the AUD in terms of statistics, which was mixed and did not contribute to establishing a specific direction of movement. Thus, Australian data which became known yesterday was not very positive: unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in August versus the level of 5.1% in July. It is possible labour market is affected by the situation with exports. Statistics released before that showed that GDP in Australia rose by 1.2% q/q (+1.4% y/y) in Q2 against the forecast of growth by 1.0% on quarterly basis. The data was above expectations; however uncertainty in the external economy is very high, which prevents growth in the exchange rate. According to the governor of the RBA Mr. Glen Stevens, as long as markets are panic-stricken it is better to keep rates steady.

As long as external background remains negative, the pair will continue to lose positions.

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