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At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continues to grow on Wednesday morning, ignoring both statistics and external background.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD, and is moving along the signal line, not giving any signals. Stochastic Oscillator is increasing in the neutral zone, giving a buy signal
Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0710, the pair will go to 1.0730 and 1.0750. If upward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

The head of RBA Stevens said today that a new statistical block will be available at the end of July and evaluation of policy will be based on it. According to him, eventually the rise in the interest rate will become a necessity at some point to control prices, however at the last meeting the level required to raise interest rate has not been reached.

Thus, the Reserve Bank of Australia has confirmed its previous hawk opinion, despite the pause in the interest rate rise which lasted for 6 sessions.
At the same time the RBA does not worry about high rate of the AUD, on the contrary, Stevens noted that expensive AUD promotes economic adjustment.

It is worth noting that the RBA intends to pursue preemptive tactic, therefore, the rates can be raised before autumn.

According to the data released today, consumer confidence index Westpac in Australia fell by 2.6% m/m, to 101.2 points in June against preliminary forecast of decline by 1.3%, to 103.9 points. In addition, a number of begun construction in Australia increased by 3.1% q/q in Q1, while the forecast had been -0.6%.

As it was announced earlier inflation in Australia increased by 0.2% m/m (+3.3% y/y), as per TD Securities estimates. It is the weighted average inflation index which is a guideline in decision making for the Bank of Australia, and it is slowing down its growth rate now (in April: +0.3% m/m), indicating that prospects of the increase in the interest rate in the coming months are slipping away.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rate at the previous level of 4.75% per annum and stressed that current course of policy is quite acceptable, which triggered sales of the AUD because it might mean that monetary policy tightening will continue to be suspended in the next few months.
Earlier representatives of the Ministry of Finance in Australia said that level of GDP is not the way to determine further movement of economy, although the Ministry still expects further improvement in the country’s economic growth. We would remind that GDP in Australia fell by 1.2% on quarterly basis (+1.0% y/y) in QI, which is the maximum fall in 20 years.

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