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At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate stands still at the end of the week, analyzing external background.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD is in the negative area and is going up slightly giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is moving in a similar way in the overbought   zone, and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0190, the pair will go to 1.0200 and 1.0220. If upward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

In general, this week was successful for the AUD, which at first took advantage of the external background, then statistics to regain from losses of September. Unemployment rate in Australia declined to 5.2% in September versus the level of 5.3% in August. This data demonstrated dynamics for the first time since this March. Employment rate rose by 20.4 thousand last month, while analytics expected the growth of not more than 10 thousand. As noted in the Bureau of Statistics in Sydney, coal mining companies hire staff to meet demand for raw materials from China and India.

Therefore, this data has scored out expectations that the RBA will reduce the rate in the nearest future. At the regular meeting last week the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave interest rate unchanged at the level of 4.75% per annum. Thus, the pause in the process of monetary tightening policy of the RBA has been lasting for 11 months. In the follow-up comments the regulator said that monetary policy can mitigate in the future if inflation requires it. The follow-up statement said that more time can be required to analyze the impact of turbulence in the markets. Apparently, the rate of the RBA is unlikely to be raised until the first quarter of 2012.

It became known this week that business confidence NAB in Australia rose to -2 points in September against preliminary level of -3 points. At the same time business conditions increased by 2 points, as per NAB research, against preliminary level of -9 points, which the Research Agency attributed to the sharp fall of the AUD’s rate earlier.

According to the data released earlier, consumer confidence WESTPAC in Australia rose by 0.4% m/m, to the level of 97.2 points in October. As noted by monetary politician Evans it is possible that the rate will go down in November, since low growth of the index indicates general pessimistic sentiment.

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