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The Australian Dollar rate continues to decline at the Forex currency market on Wednesday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and continues to go up, giving a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down today, continuing to give a pair sell signal and approaching oversold zone.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0050 traders’ targets will be the levels of 1.0010 and 0.9960.

Today’s statistics showed that consumer confidence index in Australia declined to 104.1 points (-24%) in March, as per Westpac estimates, against the previous level of 106.6 points (growth by 1.9% in February).

Statistics released on Tuesday morning showed that index of business confidence increased to 14 points in February, according to NAB estimates, against the previous 4 points. Thus, after the flood in the state of Queensland earlier this year the level of business confidence begun to recover.

However, it should be taken into consideration that retail sector, manufacturing industry and construction sector are in the difficult situation, while sectors of recreation and mining industry have been successfully recovering.

Actually, all Australian economy has slowed down – which has been confirmed by statistics and this factor is negative for the AUD.
Finance Minister of Australia Mr. Swan described the rate decision as “good news”, clarifying that echoes of disaster can affect the result of QI, while fundamentals in Australia remains steady. In accordance with the RBA, inflation forecast for this year is in the range of 2-3%.
We would remind that GDP in Australia rose by 0.7% q/q (+2.7% y/y) in QIV against the forecast of +0.6% q/q (+2.8% y/y). The economy had been able to strengthen before the flooding that struck the Green Continent, which was followed by tropical cyclone.

Interest rate is at the level of 4.75% per annum in Australia now. The meetings of RBA in 2011 will be held on 4 April, 2 May, 6 June, 4 July, 1 August, 5 September, 3 October, 31 October, 5 December.  

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