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• Rouble is losing positions again in pairing with USD and EUR [11/10/2011]
• NZD: New Zealand Dollar is descending [11/10/2011]
• AUD: sales of Australian Dollar do not subside [11/10/2011]
• JPY: Japanese Yen remains in the narrow trade range [11/10/2011]

AUD: Australian Dollar is not going to discard its intentions to regain

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate demonstrates intention to regain from the sales on Thursday, however it is more likely that weakness of the currency will prevent from full -scale technical pullback.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is below the signal line today for the pair AUD/USD and continues to go down, giving a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is also going down today, giving a sell signal and being in the neutral zone.

Forex recommendations: if bearish sentiment intensifies for the pair, traders’ targets will become the levels of 0.9860 and 0.9820/10.

The situation in Australian economy has remained unchanged today, no important macro-economic news was published today.

As it became known this week, PPI index in Australia increased by 0.1% on quarterly basis (+2.7% y/y) in QIV.  Statistics released before that was multifarious. Thus, import and export prices in Australia fell by 8.1% and 3.8% respectively. However, level of consumer confidence in Australia is estimated not so unequivocally; according to ANZ, consumer confidence in Australia amounted to 117 points in January against the level of 112.2 n December. It is interesting that, as per official data, index of consumer sentiment in Australia fell by 5.7% in January against the growth by 0.2% in December, mostly due to the flooding in the country.

The meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled for 31 January and market will carefully wait for the comments of the RBA head, as the AUD future will depend on them in the short term.  Interest rate in Australia is at the level of 4.75% per annum.  RBA meetings in 2011 are scheduled for: 31 January, 28 February, 4 April, 2 may, 6 June, 4 July, 1 August, 5 September, 3 October, 31 October, 5 December.

Note, that despite complicated situation in the Australian economy due to the flooding, authorities of the country face the future with optimism: according to Minister of Finance of the country Mr. Swan, CPI will show increase in QI of this year due to the growing dynamics of prices for food.

Medium term trend for the AUD is downward, although in the future constructive fundamental factors will be in favor of the AUD.

 
 

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