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• Rouble is losing positions again in pairing with USD and EUR [11/10/2011]
• NZD: New Zealand Dollar is descending [11/10/2011]
• AUD: sales of Australian Dollar do not subside [11/10/2011]
• JPY: Japanese Yen remains in the narrow trade range [11/10/2011]

AUD: Australian Dollar is prevented from correction in thin market

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate has made an attempt of correction on Thursday after the rapid upswing for over a week, however thin market factors and demand of the buyers prevented to develop technical rebound.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and continues to go up, confirming a previous buy signal for the pair. Stochastic Oscillator is still moving in the overbought zone, giving a pair sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0180 the pair will go to the new local highs of 1.0200 and 1.0230. If the level of 1.0160 is broken down, traders’ targets will be the levels of 1.0150 and 1.0130Note, that option barriers are located at the level of 1.2000
It is interesting that decrease in yield of the U.S. governments bonds has become a catalyst for the AUD growth; buyers have shifted to the high-yielding currencies amid weak bucks.

In general, fundamental situation in the Australian economy remains unchanged.Statistics released earlier showed that GDP in Australia increased by 0.2% on quarterly basis in QIII; while analytics had expected the rise by 0.5%; the growth over last quarter positioned as the lowest over the last two years, therefore GDP dynamics seems to be descending. It became known earlier that retail sales in October amounted to-1.1% m/m against +0.1% in September and trade balance surplus in October was $2.625 billion. It also became known earlier that current account balance amounted to -?$7.83 billion in QIII against the forecast of -?$6.60 billion.

The minutes of the RBA meeting of 7 December which was made public last week, showed that the rate was left unchanged, since the regulator believes that current situation can be described as moderately restrictive, because consumers are cautious, while inflation pressure does not intensify. The interest rate in Australia is now at the level of 4.75% per annum. The document reported that households might continue to rein in spending and in this case it will lead to the short term rise in inflation and also to the lack of aggregate demand in economy.

 

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