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At the Forex currency market on Thursday the Australian Dollar rate stopped its protracted fall and is recovering now, while external background is neutral.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD has broken through the signal line from top to bottom and is still traded in the negative area, giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9740, the pair will go to 0.9730 and 0.9720. As part of technical correction the pair can go to 0.9800.

Macro-economic background in Australia is quiet.

Unemployment rate in Australia decreased to 5.2% in October against 5.3% a month earlier. Business confidence NAB increased to 2 points in October against preliminary level of -1 points. According to NAB, the growth has been triggered by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to soften monetary policy in the future. It is interesting that business confidence NAB in Q3 amounted to -4 points in Q3; while the index had been at the level of +5 points in Q2. According to estimates of the observers, the level of employment, sales and corporate profit in the country has dropped considerably.

Minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia were released last week. According to the document, RBA expects that in the next two years dynamics of the country’s GDP will be close to the trend. At the same time the regulator noted that latest statistics had improved slightly. Slowdown of the Chinese economy naturally affected the growth rate of the Australian economy and inflation in Australia probably has reached its peak. According to RBA, decline in market rates enables to maintain discount rate unchanged, while high risks of deceleration in Australian economy, which can be caused by recession in Europe, are still preserved.

According to statistics released earlier, index of leading indicators Westpac in Australia fell by 0.3% m/m in September against 0.8% m/m a month earlier. It is not surprising if we take into to account strong influence of the situation in Eurozone and China on the Australian economy. According to statistics released earlier, consumer sentiments Westpac in Australia increased by 6.3% m/m in November, to the level of 103.4 points. According to the monetary politician Evans the level of the indicator has been at the highs since May 2011 which shall not prevent RBA from lowering the rate once again at the meeting in February.

The data released earlier showed that leading indicators index CB in Australia increased by 0.1% m/m in September against previous decline of 0.2% m/m.  Corporate profit and exports of agricultural products were among the main drivers of the increase in the index. New statistics does not cancel downward pressure, and the main reason for this was caused by changes in prices for securities at the stock market.

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