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At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate is in the red on Wednesday, since traders’ eagerness to risk is very low.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and is moving down, giving a sell signal; volumes are minimal. Stochastic Oscillator is losing positions in the neutral zone, giving a signal for moderate sales.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0080, the pair will go to 1.0070 and 1.0050. If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

According to statistics released this morning, leading indicators index Westpac in Australia fell by 0.3% in September against the growth of 0.8% a month earlier. It is not surprising taking into account that strong influence of European and Chinese situations on the economy of Australia. According to the data released earlier, consumer sentiment WESTPAC in Australia increased by 6.3% m/m in November, to the level of 103.4 points. According to monetary politician Evans, indicator is now at the highest level since May 2011; however this shall not stop RBA from lowering the rate again at the meeting in February.

Minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia were released today. According to the document, The RBA expects that in the next two years dynamics of the country’s GDP will be close to the trend; at the same time regulator noted that latest statistics has improves slightly. Slowdown of the Chinese economy naturally affected the growth rate of the Australian economy and inflation in Australia probably has reached its peak. According to RBA, decline in market rates enables to maintain discount rate unchanged, while high risks of deceleration in Australian economy, which can be caused by recession in Europe, are still preserved.

As per the estimates of the Treasury of Australia, the Asia-Pacific region is much stronger than Europe and the USA. It is important to understand that growth of Asian economies can be not linked with Europe. According to the Treasury, Australia has all chances to change current course of monetary policy if it will be necessary. This opinion agrees with general outline of the previous views of the politician. According to the comments of Mr. Lowe, the head of RBA, serious threat to the future of the EU has faded away and world economic conditions are favourable for the development of agriculture in Australia. He believes that domestic demand of Asia is growing up at a good pace and floating rate of the AUD positively affects the price of raw materials in the agricultural sector.

Unemployment rate in Australia decreased to 5.2% in October against 5.3% a month earlier. Business confidence NAB increased to 2 points in October against preliminary level of -1 points. According to NAB, the growth has been triggered by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to soften monetary policy in the future. It is interesting that business confidence NAB in Q3 amounted to -4 points in Q3; while the index had been at the level of +5 points in Q2. According to estimates of the observers, the level of employment, sales and corporate profit in the country has dropped considerably.

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