Forex Blog
Blog-FX.Com

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continues to be corrected on Tuesday – mainly due to the external background, as investors continues to move away from risky positions. 

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair UD/USD and is growing, giving a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone, giving a pair sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0470 the pair will go to 1.0490 and 1.0510. If the level of 1.0450 is exceeded, the level of 1.0400 will become the target for decline.

As noted in the meeting of the meeting of 5 April, released by the Reserve Bank of Australia, current monetary politics is quite acceptable, however, at the same time, the regulator expects growth of inflation rate. GDP is expected to be strong in QI. The document clarifies that “main index of CPI can demonstrate growth in March, while GDP will decline more significantly in QI than previously expected. The Committee will carefully consider all these factors”.  

Following the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia last week the decision was made to keep current level of the interest rate unchanged at the level of 4.75% per annum – it has been for the fourth time already that the RBA does not dare to continue monetary policy tightening. Judging by recent comments, we should not expect the rise in the interest rate at the next meeting either.

Unemployment rate reduced to 4.9% in March versus the preliminary level of 5.0% and employment rate rose by 37.8 thousand last month against the forecast of increase by 24 thousand. Therefore, strong performance in the employment sector pushed the AUD to go upward, instilling investors with the idea that the RBA can resume monetary tightening policy earlier. On the other hand deficit of trade balance was recorded in the country for the first time since spring 2010 (February -?$205 billion against +A$1.4 billion in January). In addition activity index in the service sector reduced to 46.5 points in March against the value of 48.7 points in February.

Indicators of last week showed that the level of consumer lending Westpac in Australia increased by 1.2%, to the level of 105.3 points in April against preliminary level of -2.4%.

Tags: