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At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate is slightly growing on Thursday morning; however looks more like a rebound than a trend: in addition to external factors, the AUD is under pressure from internal background.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD, and is going down, while volumes are low, and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone, and started to shape a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0270, the pair will go to 1.0290 and 1.0320. If upward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate close to the current levels. 

According to the data released today, employment rate in Australia decreased by 0.1 thousand in July against expectations of growth by 10.3 thousand. Unemployment rate in the country rose unexpectedly, up to the highs of eight months, and amounted to 5.1%; while in June the index remained at the level of 4.9%.

Therefore, it is getting more evident that Australian economy is losing momentum to growth and is slowing down.

According to the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia, interest rate in the country was left at the previous level of 4.75% per annum. In the follow-up comments, the head of the RBA, Mr. Stevens said that external uncertainty prevents the rise in the interest rate in Australia at the moment. He said that “it was agreed that it was reasonable to maintain current course of monetary policy especially taking into account acute sense of uncertainty at the financial markets recently. At the next meeting the RBA will continue to estimate varying prospects for growth and inflation”.

It became known earlier that business activity index in the construction sector AIG in Australia fell by 0.3 points in July, to the level of 36.1 points. Price index of houses in Australia fell by 0.1% q/q in Q2 against the forecast of reduction by 0.9% on quarterly basis.

Index of PPI in Australia increased by 0.8% on quarterly basis in Q2 against the growth of 1.2% in Q1. Business confidence NAB in Australia amounted to +6 points in Q2 against the prior value of +11 points. At the same time index of current conditions rose by 3 points against preliminary +2 points and assessment of business conditions in the three-month term increased by 10 points (forecast had been the growth of 15 points). CPI in Australia increased by 0.9% q/q ((+3.6% y/y) in Q2 against the forecast of growth by 0.7% q/q. This data turned out above expectations and supported growth in the pair AUD/USD. It is worth noting that business conditions index in Australia increased by 2 points in July, as per NAB estimates, against zero value in May. At the same time, business confidence index NAB amounted to 0 points against the level of +6 points in May, and GDP forecast for the fiscal year of 2011-2012 had been reduced to 1.7%

The Australian currency has reached levels that are very attractive for the purchase in the course of the ongoing sales; however one cannot be too careful, considering external environment.

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