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At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate is traded upward today, amid positive sentiment at the global capital markets. Mean while, the currency needs stronger catalyst for more efficient growth.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD is going up in the positive area, while volumes are high and is giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator tends to go out of the overbought zone and is ready to shape a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0640, the pair will go to 1.0650 and 1.0670.

Statistics released this morning showed that private sector lending rose by 0.3% in December, the same as in November. The AUD did not react to this statistics, as it is focused on the external background.

It became known yesterday that rating agency Fitch put rating of Australian banks CBA, NAB, Westpac ND ANZ for review with the forecast negative. This fact is still un favourable for the AUD.

The data released earlier was mixed. Inflation in the country showed zero growth in Q4 against the forecast of growth of 0.4%on quarterly basis. The report is interesting: core inflation rose to 2.6% in the previous quarter, exceeding average target of RBA by 2-3%. Market believes that probability is 50% now, that at the next meeting the Bank of Japan will reduce interest rate to 4%. At the end of last year, in November and December, the RBA reduced the rate twice.
Leading indicators index CB in Australia decreased by 0.3% in November against the fall of 0.6% earlier. Import price index increased by 2.5% q/q in Q4 against zero change in Q3.

Consumer sentiment index Westpac-MI fell to 94.7 points, -8.3% m/m in December against the value of 103.4 points in November. Business confidence index NAB in Australia increased to 1 point in November against zero level in October. Employment rate in November fell by 7.6thousand against initial estimate of -6.3 thousand. At the same time, unemployment rate remained at the previous level of 5.3%. We would remind that economists expected the rise of jobs by 10 thousand. The index clearly reflects the impact of the European debt crisis on Australian economy. According to government's estimate, last 12 months were the worst for the labour market over the last 20 years, as the sector has weakened significantly since last six month of 2011.

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