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AUD: Australian Dollar regains with the help of market optimism
At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate regains on Friday following the major currencies amid the decision of the B7 about currency intervention against the Yen.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is at the intersection with the signal line for the pair AUD/USD and continues to descend, giving a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is going upward in the neutral zone today, giving a pair buy signal.
Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9950 buyers’ targets will be the levels of 0.9975 and 1.0000.
The data released yesterday showed that leading indicators Westpac decreased by 0.1% m/m in January; while the forecast was +0.8% m/m. It is a moderately negative signal for the Australian economy.
The major catalyst for sales of the AUD is investors’ risk aversion, caused by the events in Japan. The situation for the Australian Dollar remains negative. Statistics released last week showed that level of PPI in China increased by 0.8% m/m (+7.2% y/y) in February against the growth by 0.9% m/m a month earlier. Industrial output in China increased by 14.9% y/y in February; on the other hand, level of CPI in China rose by 1.2% m/m (+4.9% y/y) in February against the growth by 1.0% m/m in January. China is the major trading partner of Australia and slowdown in the economy of China will have a negative impact on the Green Continent.
As representatives of the Bank of Australia noted earlier, economy of the country has been growing almost at the level of trend, and current moderately restrictive fiscal policy fits the external situation.
In addition, according to the RBA, shortage of cash in Australia now amounts to ?$1.437 billion.
Interest rate is at the level of 4.75% per annum in Australia now. The meetings of RBA in 2011 will be held on 4 April, 2 May, 6 June, 4 July, 1 August, 5 September, 3 October, 31 October, 5 December.
Current rise in the AUD today is caused purely by the emotional component because fundamentally, the Australian economy has been experiencing not the best times
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