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At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate is slightly increasing with the help of positive statistics, however still remains in the narrow trading range.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD is in the negative area and is going up, while volumes are low, shaping a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is moving sideways towards the overbought zone, and is not giving a clear signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0285, the pair will go to 1.0290 and 1.0300. If upward breakdown does not take place, the pair will go to 1.0200.

It became known today that GDP in Australia rose by 1.0% q/q (+2.5% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of growth of 0.8% on quarterly basis. The data has supported the AUD, which declined yesterday due to monetary decisions of the RBA.

The data on economic growth in Australia was based on the rise in consumer expenditures and investments in the mining industry. The results in GDP reassured investors and now a chance of another, the third in a row decrease in the interest rate is receding.

Note that earlier Australian authorities have revised forecast of GDP growth downward, to 3.5% in 2012.  Previously, forecast had been at 3.75%

At the yesterday’s meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia reported that interest rate was decreased by 25 basis points, to 4.25% per annum. In the follow-up comments the RBA said that currently, inflationary forecast enables to decrease the rate gradually because in 2012-2013 CPI will be probably in the range of 2-3%. The RBA also stressed that crisis in Eurozone and slow down in the Chinese economy adversely affect Australia; in addition, probability of further slowdown in the world economy also intensifies. 

The next meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be held only in February, so lowering of the rate can be partly explained by the fact that the regulator wanted to secure the situation before summer holidays (according to Australian seasons).

Retail sales in Australia increased to the minimum value of +0.2% m/m over 4 months in October. In September the index rose by 0.4%, and by 0.6% in August.

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