Forex Blog
Blog-FX.Com

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate weakens on Monday, retreating under pressure from negative external background. 

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD started to move downward from the signal line in the negative area and isgiving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is coming out of the oversold zone and started to shape a weak buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex:in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9950, the pair will go to 0.9960 and0.9980.

In terms of macro-economic,situation in Australia remains unchanged. The rise of the AUD at the end oflast week was triggered just by technical signals and now the AUD is losingpositions again under pressure from external background. As expected, it was extremely difficult for the AUD to reach parity level and maintain itsascending position. 

GDP in Australia rose by 1.0% q/q(+2.5% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of growth of 0.8% on quarterly basis. The data on economic growth in Australia was based on the rise in consumer expenditures and investments in the mining industry. Note, that earlier Australian authorities have revised forecast of GDP growth downward, to 3.5% in 2012. Previous forecast had been at 3.75%.

According to released statistics, inflationary expectation in Australia reduced to 2.4% in December again stpreliminary level of 2.5%, as per Melbourne University. MI stated in the comments:"Decline in inflationary expectations reflects consumers'concern about worsening international situation". The decrease in CPI islogically associated with slowdown in the rate economic development.

Unemployment rate increased to5.3% in November against the forecast of 5.2%. Employment rate fell by 6 thousand against the growth of 16.8 thousand earlier. The indicator reflectsthe impact of European debt problems on the Australian economy. Retail sales in Australia increased to the minimum value of +0.2% m/m over 4 months in October.In September the index rose by 0.4%, and by 0.6% in August. Consumer sentimentindex Westpac-MI fell to 94.7 points, -8.3% m/m in December against the value of 103.4 points in November. Business confidence index NAB in Australiaincreased to 1 point in November against zero level in October. This data ispositive at the moment as current conditions have stabilized; however levels ofbusiness confidence are still unvaried. It became known yesterday that tradebalance in Australia fell to +A$1.60 billion in October against expectations of+A$2.0 billion. Slump in the global demand has played its part here as well.

Tags: