Forex Blog
Blog-FX.Com

At the Forex currency market on Monday the Australian Dollar rate is traded up wardon Wednesday despite mixed external background and ambiguous statistics.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD is going up in the positive area, volumes are high, which gives a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is leaving overbought zone and tends to give a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0520, the pair will go to 1.0530 and 1.0550. It is high lyprobable that the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

The data released this morning was mixed. Inflation in the country showed zero growth in Q4 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. The report is interesting: core inflation rose to 2.6% in the previous quarter, exceeding average target of RBA by2-3%.

Market believes that probability is 50% now, that at the next meeting the Bank of Japan will reduce interest rate to 4%. At the end of last year, in November, December, the RBA reduced the rate twice.

Employment rate in November fell by 7.6thousand against initial estimate of -6.3 thousand. At the same time, unemployment rate remained at the previous level of 5.3%. We would remind that economists expected the rise of jobs by 10 thousand. The index clearly reflects the impact of the European debt crisis on Australian economy. According to government's estimate, last 12 months were the worst for the labour market over the last 20 years, as the sector has been weakening since the last six month of 2011. Consumer sentiment index Westpac-MI fell to 94.7 points, -8.3%m/m in December against the value of 103.4 points in November. Business confidence index NAB in Australia increased to 1 point in November against zero level in October.

Leading indicators index CB in Australia decreased by 0.3% in November against the fall of 0.6% earlier. Price index for import increased by 2.5% q/q in Q4 against zero change in Q3. However, the AUD has ignored this data, as investors' risk appetite is the main catalyst currently; however investors keep looking back at external background and situation in Eurozone. Mortgage lending in Australia increased by 1.4% m/m in November against the growth of 0.8% in October. Number of permits to construct increased by 8.4% m/m (-10.0% y/y). The rise of 7% had been predicted. Retail sales showed zero change in November against the growth of 0.2% m/m in October.

Tags: