Forex Blog
Blog-FX.Com

 At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continues to grow steadily on Thursday, due to stability of the external background.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair AUD/USD, reversed in the negative zone and started to shape   buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator continues to grow in the neutral zone, giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0735, the pair will go to 1.0750 and 1.7700.

It became known today that lending in the private sector of Australia increased by 3.1% y/y in May against expectations of +3.2%.In other respects macro-economic background of Australia remains unchanged.We would remind that vice president of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Mr. Low stressed last week that special efforts are required to maintain low and stable level of inflation.

According to him, previous growth of CPI was attributed mostly to the external factors and influence of the currencies’ exchange rates was insignificant.He also noted that very little unused spare capacity is left in the economy, and the upward pressure on inflation was caused by such facts as labour costs and growing prices for utilities.

Minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia was released earlier; the document stressed that inflationary prospect in the country suggests further tightening; however recent macro-data does not encourage the rise in the rates. “Current inflation rate is partly due to the deflationary effects of the rise in interest rate and slowdown in the increase of expenditure for labour force,” stressed the document.

The AUD fell amid such background, since investors did not like uncertainty in the views of the RBA.According to the data released last week, consumer confidence index Westpac in Australia fell by 2.6% m/m, to 101.2 points in June against preliminary forecast of decline by 1.3%, to 103.9 points. In addition, a number of begun construction in Australia increased by 3.1% q/q in Q1, while the forecast had been -0.6%.

It became known yesterday, that inflation expectations have remained at the level of May at 3.3% q/q in June. Interesting situation is taking shape in the index swap Overnight: Investors’ opinion is reflected on the rate which can reach the level of  4.515 by December this year, and taking into account that the rate is now at 4.75% per annum, market incorporates a chance that interest rate will go down, amid deterioration of the global situation. However, these investors’ actions can trigger the Reserve Bank to make an opposite decision.

Tags: