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At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate started to decline again after the rise on Friday

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and is going down, giving a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone today, giving a pair buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0130 the pair will go to 1.0150 and 1.0180/90. If the level of 1.0075 is exceeded, traders’ targets will become the levels of 1.0050 and 1.0010.

The situation for the Australian Dollar remains negative. Statistics released last week showed that level of PPI in China increased by 0.8% m/m (+7.2% y/y) in February against the growth by 0.9% m/m a month earlier. Industrial output in China increased by 14.9% y/y in February; on the other hand, level of CPI in China rose by 1.2% m/m (+4.9% y/y) in February against the growth by 1.0% m/m in January. China is the major trading partner of Australia and slowdown in the economy of China will have a negative impact on the Green Continent. 

Statistics released on Tuesday morning showed that index of business confidence increased to 14 points in February, as per NAB estimates, against the previous 4 points. Thus, after the flood in the state of Queensland earlier this year the level of business confidence has begun to recover.

? However, it should be taken into consideration that retail sector, manufacturing industry and construction sector are in the difficult situation, while sectors of recreation and mining industry have been successfully recovering. Actually, the Australian economy has slowed down – which has been confirmed by statistics and this factor is negative for the AUD.

Interest rate is at the level of 4.75% per annum in Australia now. The meetings of RBA in 2011 will be held on 4 April, 2 May, 6 June, 4 July, 1 August, 5 September, 3 October, 31 October, 5 December.

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