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At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate is traded downward on Monday, since investors continue to analyze the outcome of the European Summit.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD is going up in the negative area and has come up closely to the intersection with the signal line, ready to break through it from bottom to top. Stochastic oscillator goes down sharply, approaching oversold zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0150, the pair will go to 1.0140 and 1.0020.

It became known today that trade balance in Australia fell to +A$1.60 billion in October against expectations of +A$2.0 billion. Slump in the global demand has played its part here as well.

It became known last week that unemployment rate increased to 5.3% in November against the forecast of 5.2%.  Employment rate fell by 6 thousand against the growth of 16.8 thousand earlier. Economists had expected increase in jobs by 10 thousand. The indicator reflects the impact of European debt problems on the Australian economy. And although the data on GDP somehow reassured investors yesterday, traders started to worry again about possible lowering of the interest rate.

Retail sales in Australia increased to the minimum value of +0.2% m/m over 4 months in October. In September the index rose by 0.4%, and by 0.6% in August.

At the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia reported that interest rate was lowered by 25 basis points, to 4.25% per annum. In the follow-up comments the RBA said that currently, inflationary forecast enables to decrease the rate gradually because in 2012-2013 CPI will be probably in the range of 2-3%. The RBA also stressed that crisis in Eurozone and slow down in the Chinese economy adversely affect Australia; in addition, probability of further slowdown in the world economy also intensifies. The next meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be held only in February, so lowering of the rate can be partly explained by the fact that the regulator wanted to secure the situation before summer holidays (according to Australian seasons).

GDP in Australia rose by 1.0% q/q (+2.5% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of growth of 0.8% on quarterly basis. The data has supported the AUD, which declined yesterday due to monetary decisions of the RBA. The data on economic growth in Australia was based on the rise in consumer expenditures and investments in the mining industry. The results in GDP reassured investors and now a chance of another, the third in a row decrease in the interest rate is receding. Note that earlier Australian authorities have revised forecast of GDP growth downward, to 3.5% in 2012.  Previously, forecast had been at 3.75%.

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