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AUD: Australian Dollar started this week with sales
At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate is traded downward on Monday, due to Chinese news and rumors.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD is going up in the positive area, while volumes are high and is giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator tends to go out of the overbought zone and is ready to shape a sell signal.
Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0600, the pair will go to 1.0620 and 1.0640.
Chinese trading floors were closed last week; however there have been rumours on Monday morning that China will post ponereduction in reserve requirements for banks. This news upset the AUD.
It became known today that rating agency Fitch put rating of Australian banks CBA, NAB, Westpac ND ANZ for review with the forecast negative. This fact is un favourable for the AUD.
Consumer sentiment index Westpac-MI fell to94.7 points, -8.3% m/m in December against the value of 103.4 points in November. Business confidence index NAB in Australia increased to 1 point in November against zero level in October. Employment rate in November fell by 7.6thousand against initial estimate of -6.3 thousand. At the same time, unemployment rate remained at the previous level of 5.3%. We would remind that economists expected the rise of jobs by 10 thousand. The index clearly reflects the impact of the European debt crisis on Australian economy. According to government's estimate, last 12 months were the worst for the labour market over the last 20 years, as the sector has been weakening since the last six month of 2011
The data released yesterday was mixed. Inflation in the country showed zero growth in Q4 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis.
The report is interesting: core inflation rose to 2.6% in the previous quarter, exceeding average target of RBA by 2-3%.Market believes that probability is 50% now, that at the next meeting the Bank of Japan will reduce interest rate to 4%. At the end of last year, in November and December, the RBA reduced the rate twice.
Leading indicators index CB in Australia decreased by 0.3% in November against the fall of 0.6% earlier. Import price index increased by 2.5% q/q in Q4against zero change in Q3.
