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At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate has suspended its growth that started yesterday and is waiting for the external signals.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD, and started to decline, giving a sell signal; however volumes are still low. Stochastic Oscillator is going up slowly in the neutral zone, giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0740, the pair will go to 1.0750 and 1.0770.

If upward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate close o the current levels.It became known today that leading indicator in Australia fell by 0.3 points in June, to the level of 279.5 points, as per Westpac estimates. Market did not respond to the statistics, awaiting more serious external signals.Meanwhile Chinese statistics released this morning showed that economic growth in the country is still in progress and it is a positive signal for the AUD.

As the data released last week showed, business conditions index in Australia increased by 2 points in Jule, as per NAB estimates, against zero value in May. At the same time, business confidence index NAB amounted to 0 points against the level of +6 points in May, and GDP forecast for the fiscal year of 2011-2012 had been reduced to 1.7%.

According to the data released earlier, consumer inflationary expectations MI in Australia rose to 3.4% in July against the level of 3.3% in June. The AUD has not really reacted to the data, focusing its attention on the Chinese statistics and forecasts.The minutes of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia in July which was made public earlier stated that the RBA needs time to evaluate dimension of the inflationary pressure and the next CPI report will determine the direction of the monetary policy.In addition, the minutes state that economic prospects are still positive in the medium term and as a whole, labor market does not demonstrate signs of recession.

Thus, the RBA gave no indication as to when tightening of the monetary policy could commence.At the meeting two weeks ago, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave interest rate at previous level of 4.75% per annum and according to the regulator, moderately restrictive monetary policy is consistent with the actual situation.  According to the RBA, the base rate will rise very gradually and economic growth in 2011 will be worse than expected.

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