AUD: Australian Dollar tends to go up

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate resumed energetic growth on Thursday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD is going up in the positive area, volumes are high, which enables a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator started to go up again in the neutral zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0640, the pair will go to 1.0650 and 1.0670.

Asian session was favourable for the AUD, despite investors' low activity. Positive external background encourages interest to high-risk currencies. The AUD can continue ascending trend with the help of such support.

The data released yesterday was mixed. Inflation in the country showed zero growth in Q4 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. The report is interesting: core inflation rose to 2.6% in the previous quarter, exceeding average target of RBA by 2-3%.Market believes that probability is 50% now, that at the next meeting the Bank of Japan will reduce interest rate to 4%. At the end of last year, in November and December, the RBA reduced the rate twice.

Consumer sentiment index Westpac-MI fell to94.7 points, -8.3% m/m in December against the value of 103.4 points in November. Business confidence index NAB in Australia increased to 1 point in November against zero level in October. Employment rate in November fell by 7.6thousand against initial estimate of -6.3 thousand. At the same time, unemployment rate remained at the previous level of 5.3%. We would remind that economists expected the rise of jobs by 10 thousand. The index clearly reflects the impact of the European debt crisis on Australian economy.  According to government's estimate, last 12 months were the worst for the labour market over the last 20 years, as the sector has been weakening since the last six month of 2011

Mortgage lending in Australia increased by1.4% m/m in November against the growth of 0.8% in October. Number of permits to construct increased by 8.4% m/m (-10.0% y/y). The rise of 7% had been predicted. Retail sales showed zero change in November against the growth of0.2% m/m in October. Leading indicators index CB in Australia decreased by 0.3%in November against the fall of 0.6% earlier. Import price index increased by 2.5% q/q in Q4 against zero change in Q3.

 

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