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At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate is traded upward on Thursday, regaining from yesterday’s sales.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and descends, approaching the signal line and confirming a sell signal. Stochastic oscillator remains in the oversold zone today, maintaining a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: as part of correction the pair can reach the levels of 0.9900 and 0.9940, if the level of 0.9850 is definitely broken down. However it is worth remembering that aggressive traders can be back. 

The indicators released yesterday showed that leading indicators Westpac declined by 0.1% m/m in January against preliminary forecast of +0.8% m/m. It is moderately negative signal for the Australian economy.

The major catalyst for sales of the AUD is investors’ risk aversion, caused by the events in Japan. The situation for the Australian Dollar remains negative. Statistics released last week showed that level of PPI in China increased by 0.8% m/m (+7.2% y/y) in February against the growth by 0.9% m/m a month earlier. Industrial output in China increased by 14.9% y/y in February; on the other hand, level of CPI in China rose by 1.2% m/m (+4.9% y/y) in February against the growth by 1.0% m/m in January. China is the major trading partner of Australia and slowdown in the economy of China will have a negative impact on the Green Continent.

As representatives of the Bank of Australia noted yesterday, economy of the country has been growing almost at the level of trend, and current moderately restrictive fiscal policy fits the external situation. 

In addition, according to the RBA, shortage of cash in Australia now amounts to ?$1.437 billion.

Interest rate is at the level of 4.75% per annum in Australia now. The meetings of RBA in 2011 will be held on 4 April, 2 May, 6 June, 4 July, 1 August, 5 September, 3 October, 31 October, 5 December. 
 

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