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At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continues to be under pressure from sellers.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair AUD/USD, however is increasing, giving a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator has reversed in the oversold zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0675, the pair will go to 1.0650 and 1.0630.

At the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia today the decision was made to leave interest rate at the previous level of 4.75% per annum and according to the comments of the regulator, moderately restrictive monetary policy is consistent with the actual situation. 

According to the RBA, the base rate will rise very gradually and economic growth in 2011 will be slower than expected. Stevens, the head of the RBA has said in the accompanying statement that Australian economy is gradually recovering after natural disasters, while European debt problems have a negative impact on the process.

Market expected that Stevens would give drop a hint at the time when the rate would be raised, however it did not happen.

As per the RBA estimates, employment sector of Australia is in the stable state, unemployment rate is described as moderate lately, although it has not affected unemployment rate, which remains at the level of 5%. 

According to the data released earlier, consumer confidence index Westpac in Australia fell by 2.6% m/m, to 101.2 points in June against preliminary forecast of decline by 1.3%, to 103.9 points. In addition, a number of begun construction in Australia increased by 3.1% q/q in Q1, while the forecast had been -0.6%. It became known yesterday, that inflation expectations have remained at the level of May at 3.3% q/q in June. At the same time activity index in the manufacturing sector of Australia increased by 5.2 points in June, to the level of 52.9 points. Thus, the index has exceeded the meaningful standard of 50 points and is now giving a positive indication.

 As it became known today, level of retail sales in Australia fell by 0.6% m/m in May against the growth by 1.2% in April. The data is negative: reduction in the buyers’ interest indicates cautious attitude to economic outlook.

Vice president of the Reserve Bank of Australia Mr. Low, stressed earlier that special efforts are required to maintain low and stable level of inflation. According to him previous growth of CPI was attributed mostly to the external factors and influence of the currencies’ exchange rates was insignificant.

He also noted that very little unused spare capacity is left in the economy, and the upward pressure on inflation was caused by such facts as labour costs and growing prices for utilities.

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