Forex Blog
Blog-FX.Com

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continues its freefall on Thursday- sales of the AUD are increasing while investors have no interest in risk.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD goes down in the negative area after breaking through the signal line from top to bottom and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone, tending to go into oversold zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9980, the pair will go to 0.9965 and 0.9950. If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

Aggressive sales of the pair can maintain until the end of the week. Australian economy does not provide any pretext for technical rebound, while external background is putting considerable pressure. It became known this week that leading indicators index Westpac/MI in Australia increased by 1.4% in July, to the level of 284.2 points (+3.1% y/y) versus prior expectations of +2.7%.

The AUD neglected this information: there are more influential players on the scene of the currency market. It became known earlier that consumer inflation expectations in Australia rose to 2.8% in September, as per estimates of Melbourne Institute against provisional estimate of 2.7%. This data is of general nature and the AUD did not respond to it; however it is obvious that inflationary pressure will continue to grow.

According to the data released earlier trade balance in Australia was at the level of +A$1.83 billion in July against the forecast of +A$1.9 billion, which is slightly better than the data in June, however weaker than predicted. Obviously, external background puts pressure on the economy of the Green Continent. Minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia which was made public this week, show that current levels of the rates correspond to the existing situation, while medium- term outlooks for economic growth continue to be optimistic.

Companies are ready to hire employees, which is a positive factor, however expensive AUD has forced to review business strategies and plans. The minutes look weird, considering that Australian economy suffers huge losses now, due to the decrease in exports levels and particularly for coal.The data released earlier showed that consumer confidence Westpac in Australia rose by 8.1% m/m in September, reaching the level of 96.9 points.

Index of business conditions NAB in Australia fell by 3 points in August against the level of -1 point in July. The index declined to the lowest level since April 2009, indicating recession in the sentiments and prospects. National Australian Bank Ltd, noted commenting these result, that it reflects increased level of uneasiness and concern about further expansion of the debt crisis.

Tags: