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At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continues to be in the focus of sellers’ attention on Tuesday, as external background is not favourable for the purchases of the high risky currencies.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD; it has broken through the signal line from bottom to the top earlier and is rising, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is going up slowly in the neutral zone, giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0580, the pair will go to 1.0550 and 1.0530.

As the data released today showed, business conditions index in Australia increased by 2 points in Jule, as per NAB estimates against zero value in May. At the same time, business confidence index NAB amounted to 0 points against the level of +6 points in May, and GDP forecast for the fiscal year of 2011-2012 had been reduced to 1.7%.

Vice president of the Reserve Bank of Australia Mr. Low, stressed earlier that special efforts are required to maintain low and stable level of inflation. According to him previous growth of CPI was attributed mostly to the external factors and influence of the currencies’ exchange rates was insignificant.He also noted that very little unused spare capacity is left in the economy, and the upward pressure on inflation was caused by such facts as labour costs and growing prices for utilities.

At the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia yesterday the decision was made to leave interest rate at previous level of 4.75% per annum and according to the comments of the regulator, moderately restrictive monetary policy is consistent with the actual situation. 

According to the RBA, the base rate will rise very gradually and economic growth in 2011 will be slower than expected. Stevens, the head of the RBA has said in the accompanying statement that Australian economy is gradually recovering after natural disasters, while European debt problems interfere with the process. Market expected that Stevens would drop a hint at the time when the rate would be raised, however it did not happen. As per the RBA estimates, employment sector of Australia is in the stable state, unemployment rate is described as moderate lately, although it has not affected unemployment rate, which remains at the level of 5%. 

Earlier, the AUD had found catalyst with the help of statistics: employment rate in the country is recovering faster in June than predicted: (+15 thousand); mainly due to a record number of jobs (the highest level over three years. This statistics partly relieves concerns about potential slowdown of the economic growth in Australia.However, according to the latest statistics and investors’ sentiment, there is no cause for buying AUD as yet. 

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