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At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continues to be slightly corrected from many-year high level amid investors’ risk aversion.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and goes up, maintaining a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator tends to come out of the overbought zone today, starting a pair sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0670 the pair will go to 1.0650 and 1.0630.
As the data released this morning showed, leading indicators index in Australia increased by 0.6% in February against the rise by 0.1% in January. It is a good sign for the local economy.

The situation in the Australian economy has remained unchanged due to the long holiday. It became known in the middle of last week that index of prices for import increased by 0.9% on quarterly basis in QI. Index of leading indicators rose by 4.7% y/y in March against the rise by 4.8% in February. It is a good result taking into account that the Reserve Bank of Australia keeps interest rate unchanged for a long time. Leading indicators index demonstrates good growth in the Australian economy: indicators show that growth is unlikely to be too high next year; however there will be some growth.

Kevin Rood, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Australia said yesterday that RBA has no plans to carry out currency intervention, although national currency is significantly overvalued. 

Unemployment rate reduced to 4.9% in March versus the preliminary level of 5.0% and employment rate rose by 37.8 thousand last month against the forecast of increase by 24 thousand. Therefore, strong performance in the employment sector pushed the AUD to go upward, instilling investors with the idea that the RBA can resume monetary tightening policy earlier. On the other hand deficit of trade balance was recorded in the country for the first time since spring 2010 (February -?$205 billion against +A$1.4 billion in January). In addition activity index in the service sector reduced to 46.5 points in March against the value of 48.7 points in February.

Tomorrow, on Wednesday investors will await data on CPI in QI (it is expected that quarterly growth will be by 1.2%). Level of lending in the private sector (rise by 0.4% in March) will be made public on Friday, as well as the data on the volumes of total lending.

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