AUD: Strengthening of Australian Dollarh as been suspended

At the Forex currency market strengthening of the Australian Dollar rate has been suspended on Tuesday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD continues to move down away from the signal line in the negative area and isgiving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the over bought zone and is giving a buy signal. 

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario atForex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0160, the pair will go to 1.0170? 1.0190. If upward breakdown does not take place, there will be achance of roll back to 1.0120.

Australian market is closed today.

It was noted by Australian Central Bank on last Tuesday, that the country has been fighting against repercussions of European debt crisis with the help of investment boom: minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia showed that there is no urgent need at the moment in lowering rate and current steps directed to ease monetary policy is sufficient to support economy. 

Observers believe that lowering of the rate of RBA in December was just a safe guard against external negative factors. 

Unemployment rate increased to5.3% in November against the forecast of 5.2%. Employment rate fell by 6 thousand against the growth of 16.8 thousand earlier. The indicator reflects the impact of European debt problems on the Australian economy. Retail sales in Australia increased to the minimum value of +0.2% m/m over 4 months in October. In September the index rose by 0.4%, and by 0.6% in August. 

Consumer sentiment index Westpac-MI fell to 94.7 points, -8.3% m/m in December against the value of103.4 points in November. Business confidence index NAB in Australia increased to 1 point in November against zero level in October. This data is positive at the moment as current conditions have stabilized; however levels of business confidence are still unvaried. It became known yesterday that trade balance inAustralia fell to +A$1.60 billion in October against expectations of +A$2.0 billion. Slump in the global demand has played its part here as well.

Last week statistics showed that leading indicator index Westpac-MI in Australia increased to 282.2 points (+0.4points) in October. The data reflects the pace of economic activity in the next 3-9 months; index has increased on monthly basis, however, it went down on annual basis (2.6% against 2.8% earlier). This is a signal that business activity in the country may decline in the coming months.

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