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• Rouble is losing positions again in pairing with USD and EUR [11/10/2011]
• NZD: New Zealand Dollar is descending [11/10/2011]
• AUD: sales of Australian Dollar do not subside [11/10/2011]
• JPY: Japanese Yen remains in the narrow trade range [11/10/2011]

AUD: the Australian dollar continues to drop keeping the pace

The Australian dollar continues to drop on the Forex market because of 2 reasons. Firstly, the American dollar was considerably supported by macro-economic data; secondly, inundations in North-Eastern Australia are going to be the most harmful ones over the last 50 years.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and is moving downwards, confirming the sell-signal for the pair. Stochastic Oscillator is remaining in the oversold zone.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9900 the pair will go to 0.9880 and 0.9860. If the level of 0.9950 is broken down, buyers’ targets will be the levels of 0.9970 and 0.9990. The parity level will be the further bullish target.

The inundations in North-Eastern Australia and Queensland are likely to become the largest ones over the last 50 years, what can induce the Reserve Bank of Australia to defer the interest rate increase. About 95% of sugar production in Australia and considerable coal stocks are centered in Queensland. In general, Queensland accounts for about 20% of the Green continent’s economy. As per different assessments, natural cataclysms can reduce the Australian economy growth by 0,2% in the first quarter of 2011.

The minutes of the RBA meeting of 7 December which were made public last week, showed that the rate was left unchanged, since the regulator believes that current situation can be described as moderately restrictive, because consumers are cautious, while inflation pressure does not intensify. The interest rate in Australia is now at the level of 4.75% per annum. The document reported that households might continue to rein in spending and in this case it will lead to the short term rise in inflation and also to the lack of aggregate demand in economy.

The RBA meetings in 2011 are scheduled for: 31 January, 28 February, 4 April, 2 may, 6 June, 4 July, 1 August, 5 September, 3 October, 31 October, 5 December. 

 

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