Advertisement

Last Articles

Last News

AUD: the Australian Dollar decrease was spurred by the RBA decision

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continues falling on Tuesday. Currency market’s slight stabilization didn’t affect the pair – investors are in the Aussie shorts, not seeing any fundamentals to support the currency.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD goes down in the negative area and is giving a sell signal; volumes are high. Stochastic Oscillator entered the oversold zone, giving the same signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakup at the level of 0.9370, the pair will go to 0.9440 and 0.9460. If the breakup does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

Another RBA meeting took place today at which the Bank decided to keep its cash rate unchanged at the level of 4.75%. So the pause in monetary policy tightening lasts for 11 months. In its minutes RBA noted that monetary policy might be eased in future if demanded by the inflation component. It also added that much time might be needed to analyze current market turbulence.

Apparently the rate will remain unchanged until Q1 2012. Let us remind that earlier JP Morgan economists revised its opinion on the Australian rate – now they do not await its 25 bps rise in 2012, forecasting the rate to remain at the current levels till the end of the next year. In accompanying comments the economists note that financial markets are too volatile and the risks of economy’s cooling are too big to speak of the rate increase. A fall is commodities prices also plays against Australia.

According to the statistics released the day before, AIG Performance of Service Index in Australia decreased to the level of 42.3 points in September the previous level of 43.3 points. Most likely this is a consequence of an overall slump in demand.

According to the statistics released the day before, Private sector credit in Australia totaled +0.2% m/m in August against +0.3% m/m in July. This became another reason for the Aussie selloff. Leading indicators index Westpac/MI in Australia increased by 1.4% in July, to the level of 284.2 points (+3.1% y/y) versus prior expectations of +2.7%. It became known earlier that consumer inflation expectations in Australia rose to 2.8% in September, as per estimates of Melbourne Institute against provisional estimate of 2.7%. 

[More]

Tags: