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At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate trades upward on Tuesday moving away from the local lows tested at the beginning of the week. Positive sentiment comes from world financial markets’ correction.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD goes down in the negative area and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator came out of in the oversold zone and is rising in the neutral zone, giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakup at the level of 0.9890, the pair will go to 0.9920 and 0.9945. If the breakup does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

Still the increase is correctional and it’s too early to speak of the about-turn. One should note that the Australian economy does not provide any pretext for technical rebound – the external background is the only hope. 

The macroeconomic situation remains the same by today.

Minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia which were made public this week show, that current levels of the rates correspond to the existing situation, while medium- term outlooks for economic growth continue to be optimistic. Companies are ready to hire employees, which is a positive factor, however expensive AUD has forced to review business strategies and plans. The minutes look weird, considering that Australian economy suffers huge losses now, due to the decrease in exports levels and particularly for coal.

The data released previously showed that consumer confidence Westpac in Australia rose by 8.1% m/m in September, reaching the level of 96.9 points. Index of business conditions NAB in Australia fell by 3 points in August against the level of -1 point in July. The index declined to the lowest level since April 2009, indicating recession in the sentiments and prospects. National Australian Bank Ltd, noted commenting these result, that it reflects increased level of uneasiness and concern about further expansion of the debt crisis.

Leading indicators index Westpac/MI in Australia increased by 1.4% in July, to the level of 284.2 points (+3.1% y/y) versus prior expectations of +2.7%. The AUD neglected this information: there are more influential players on the scene of the currency market. It became known earlier that consumer inflation expectations in Australia rose to 2.8% in September, as per estimates of Melbourne Institute against provisional estimate of 2.7%. This data is of general nature and the AUD did not respond to it; however it is obvious that inflationary pressure will continue to grow.

No data will be published in Australia till the end of the week, so traders should only hope for some rebound on the back of the external background.

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