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At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate is traded downward on Monday after Friday’s recovery. The AUD traders have not have specific trading ideas so far, however, they cannot rely on the external background, as it does not help any more either.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and is moving down, giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator started to go up in the neutral zone, giving a signal for moderate buying.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0290, the pair will go to 1.0280 and 1.0250. If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

Australian macro-economic situation has not changed significantly on Monday morning.

As it became known yesterday, unemployment rate in Australia decreased to 5.2% in October against 5.3% a month earlier. According to the data released yesterday, consumer sentiment WESTPAC in Australia increased by 6.3% m/m in November, to the level of 103.4 points. According to monetary politician Evans, indicator is now at the highest level since May 2011, however this shall not stop RBA from lowering the rate again at the meeting in February.

As per the estimates of the Treasury of Australia, the Asia-Pacific region is much stronger than Europe and the USA. It is important to understand that growth of Asian economies can be not linked with Europe. According to the Treasury, Australia has all chances to change current course of monetary policy if it will be necessary. This opinion agrees with general outline of the previous views of the politician. According to the comments of Mr. Lowe, the head of RBA, serious threat to the future of the EU has faded away and world economic conditions are favourable for the development of agriculture in Australia. He believes that domestic demand of Asia is growing up at a good pace and floating rate of the AUD positively affects the cost of raw materials in the agricultural sector.

Business confidence NAB increased to 2 points in October against preliminary level of -1 points. According to NAB, the growth has been triggered by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to soften monetary policy in the future. It is interesting that business confidence NAB in Q3 amounted to -4 points in Q3; while the index had been at the level of +5 points in Q2. According to estimates of the observers, the level of employment, sales and corporate profit in the country has dropped considerably.

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