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At the Forex currency market the Canadian Dollar rate is traded downward on Tuesday in response to the uncertainty of the external background.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CAD has broken through the signal line from top to bottom and is traded in the negative area, moving along the signal line, and not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, and had started to go up but then shifted into sideways, not giving a clear signal either. The pattern is similar to what we had yesterday.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0165 the pair will go to 1.0180 and 1.0200. If upward breakdown does not take place, the pair will remain at the current levels.

Canadian Dollar like all other commodity currencies continues to be responsive to the changes in the external background.According to information received earlier, Canadian companies are going to continue effective work in the future, by increasing volume of investments and creating new jobs; however not as fast as it had been announced earlier.

The forecast for sales in 2012 has been lowered in the country; as a result, local producers had to temper their personal forecasts. According to the estimates of the Bank of Canada, sentiment of the leaders of the large companies fell down compared with the summer period, since top management expects the decrease in the U.S. GDP and conservation of uncertainty in respect to global economic outlooks.

CPI in Canada rose by 0.2% m/m (+3.2% y/y) in September against the forecast of growth by 0.1% m/m. At the same time base inflation showed growth of 0.5% m/m (+2.2% y/y) versus the forecast of growth by 0.2% m/m. At the moment the rise in inflation is within acceptable limits and is not harmful to economy. Leaders of the large Canadian companies indicate decline in inflationary expectations; it is predicted that in 2012 CPI will be in the range of 1-3%.

The Bank of Canada believes that GDP growth will amount to about 2.8% in 2011 (decline by 0.1% from the forecast in April); in 2012: 2.6% and in 2013: 2.1%. According to the Bank exports performance in Canada is weak because low demand in the USA impedes progress of the indicator and expensive CAD also makes its contribution. The rise in the interest rate will directly depend on the stability of economic growth.

Statistics released last week showed that decline in the Canadian employment sector; unemployment rate increased by 0.2% in October, up to the level of 7.3% versus the level of 7.1% in September. Full employment reduced by 71.7 thousand, part- time employment increased byšš 17.7 thousand. Overall rate of employment in Canada fell by 54 thousand last month against the growth of 60.9 thousand in September. šAfter the release of this statistics representative of the Bank of Canada Harper noted that employment statistics fully reflects low confidence both in Canada and in the world; however labour sector is very volatile. 

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