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CAD: Canadian Dollar is waiting for new signals
At the Forex currency market the Canadian Dollar rate stands still in the beginning of new week, waiting for new, significant catalysts for movement.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CAD is going down in the negative area andis giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is going up in the overbought zone giving a buy signal.
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0290, the pair will go to 1.0300 and1.0340. In case of alter native scenario of trades the pair will have a chance to break through to 1.0270 and move to 1.0250 and 1.0240.
According to the data released last week, unemployment rate rose to 7.5% inDecember against the forecast of 7.4%, employment rate increased by 175thousand versus expectations of growth of 15 thousand.
Thus, invariably negative pattern in the Canadian employment market, which took shapein the last six months of 2011, still persists. Meanwhile, significant rise injobs in the production sector is obvious.
GDP in Canada rose by 3.5% y/y in Q3 against revised decline of 0.5% in April-June. Economists predicted growth of the index of 3%. The Bank of Canada believes that country's GDP will amount to 2.8% in 2011 (decline by 0.1% against the forecast in April), in 2012 it will be: 2.6% and in 2013: 2.1%. According to the Bank, export performance in Canada is weak, because low demand in theU.S. impedes progress in the index and expensive CAD also offers a challenge. The rise in the interest rate in Canada will directly depend on stability in economic growth.
It became known recently that CPI in Canada increased by 0.1% m/m(+2.9% y/y) in November which agreed with the forecast. The growth isreasonable, which meets with expectations and does not involve risk for theeconomy
It became known in December that the regulator maintained the rate unchanged at the level of 1%. The news did not take players by surprise, as investors assumed that the rate will be maintained at the current levels for at leastanother 12 months. The Bank of Canada said in the comments that negative factor,which was caused by deceleration of the global economy, can affect Canadian economic system as well, especially now when situation in the world financial trading floors has worsened sharply through the fault of the Euro.
