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At the Forex currency market the Canadian Dollar rate goes up on Tuesday, as it finally received a long-awaited catalyst which was some revival in demand for risky assets.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CAD is going down in the negative area and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator reversed downward in the neutral zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 1.0185, the pair will go to 1.0170 and 1.0150.

Situation in Canada is neutral in terms of macro-statistics.

GDP in Canada rose by 3.5% y/y in Q3 against revised decline of 0.5% in April-June. Economists predicted growth of the index of 3%. The Bank of Canada believes that country’s GDP will amount to 2.8% in 2011 (decline by 0.1% against the forecast in April), in 2012 it will be: 2.6% and in 2013: 2.1%.  According to the Bank, export performance in Canada is weak, because low demand in the U.S. impedes progress in the index and expensive CAD also offers a challenge. The rise in the interest rate in Canada will directly depend on stability in economic growth.

It became known earlier that CPI in Canada increased by 0.1% m/m (+2.9% y/y) in November which agreed with the forecast. The growth is within the ball park, which meets with expectations and does not involve risk for the economy.

It became known in December that the regulator had kept the rate unchanged at the level of 1%. The news did not take players by surprise, as investors assumed that the rate would be maintained at the current levels for at least another 12 months. The Bank of Canada said in the comments that negative factor, which was caused by deceleration of the global economy, can affect Canadian economic system as well, especially now when situation in the world financial trading floors has worsened sharply through the fault of the Euro.

According to the data released last week, unemployment rate rose to 7.5% in December against the forecast of 7.4%, employment rate increased by 175 thousand versus expectations of growth of 15 thousand.

Thus, invariably negative pattern in the Canadian employment market, which took shape in the last six months of 2011, still persists. Meanwhile, significant rise in jobs in the production sector is obvious.

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