CHF: Activityin Swiss Franc remains low

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate almost stays put on Tuesday and the trading situation today is taking a pattern of the yesterday's one.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the positive area and is going down slowly, giving aweak sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator continues to grow in the neutral zoneand is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex:in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9370, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9380and 0.9390. However, there is a high chance that the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

Situation in the country isstable in terms of macro-statistics. Catholic world is busy celebrating Christmas and a New Year holiday will come next, which means that a chance of important developments in the market is very low.

According to observers from WellsFargo, economic indexes in Switzerland demonstrated slow down all the year round and there are many indications showing that the weakness will continue for the next six months. According to them, domestic demand is also getting lower whichis a negative sign. As for the rate, it is most likely that SNB will adhere tothe zero level due to the soft inflation.

Three-month Libor rate was leftin the range of 0-0.25%, closer to zero; the Bank did not change pegging level of Franc to Euro, maintaining the actual level of 1.20. In the follow up comments the head of SNB Mr. Hildebrand stressed that the regulator willcontinue to maintain the target rate of CHF, with the help of purchases offoreign currency in unlimited quantities and additional package of measures ifsituation requires. SNB is ready to maintain high level of liquidity, as inflation growth is not expected. In general, economy of the country depends alot on the European crisis. Apparently, SNB has adopted attitude of anonlooker, keeping in place existing management tools, being pretty confident that they always have time to start intervention.

Swiss National Bank noted earlier that the regulator is prepared to take additional measures if situation atForex deteriorates. According to SNB, strong Franc creates extra problems forthe economy and the issue of negative interest rates and control over the capital movement is being thoroughly scrutinized in the Bank. GDP in Switzerland will amount to 1.5%-2.0% this year; main growth will be attributedto the results of the first part of the year. SNB noted in the comments that if stringent monetary measures had not been taken the economy would have slippedto a recession. SNB expects that inflation will be at the level of 0.4% in 2011 and at the level of 0.3% next year. 

It became known earlier that trade balance in Switzerland rose by 3.0 billion francs in November against the forecast of +2.00 billion francs and previous value of +2.15 billion francs. Index is favourable, however it is based on the efforts of the local regulator to curb the rate of the Franc.

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