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At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate is still traded upward on Monday, since investors obviously do not have any other practicable trading idea, but to sit out turbulent times in the “quiet harbor”.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is going up in the positive area and is shaping a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone and is giving a similar signal; although it tends to go out of the zone.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9160, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9150 and 0.9140.   

On Tuesday investors expect publications of Swiss trade balance in October; on Thursday investors’ attention will be drawn to employment data in non-agricultural sector in Q3.

Surplus of trade balance amounted to 1850 billion SHF in September. It became known earlier that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 0.84 points in September against the revised level of 0.80 points in August.  Taking into account that the data reflects the figures of the months when SNB has fixed the rate of the Franc, the index looks very much positive. Producer prices and import prices in Switzerland declined by 0.1% m/m (-2.0% y/y) in September.

Unemployment rate in Switzerland rose to 2.9%, which had been an expected rise from 2.8%. The data which is going to be released this week will show dynamics in the index.

Representative of SNB Mr. Jordan said today, that Swiss regulator does not need external guidance on monetary policy, as it is an independent institution and does not intend to receive instructions from business groups and politicians. SNB will continue to take appropriate measures if economic forecasts and deflation will need them. According to him growth of Swiss economy has slowed down earlier, due to the high exchange rate of Swiss Franc.

According estimates of Swiss National Bank, GDP in Switzerland will amount to 1.5%-2.0% this year; main growth will be attributed to the results of the first part of the year. SNB noted in the comments that if stringent monetary measures had not been taken the economy would have slipped to a recession. SNB expects that inflation will be at the level of 0.4% in 2011 and at the level of 0.3% next year.

As it became known recently, economic expectations ZEW in Switzerland amounted to -64.2 points in November against -54.4 points a month earlier. The data objectively reflects expectations for the next 6 months; it is obvious that Franc has been artificially kept at the low levels by the SNB and if it is released, pressure on the economy will be enormous.

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