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At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate is moderately increasing on Wednesday after four days of weakness.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD is going down in the positive area, giving a sell signal; volumes remain above average.  Stochastic Oscillator is growing in the neutral zone, still maintaining a buy signal and is approaching overbought zone.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of break down at the level of 0.9250, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9260 and 0.9270. If upward breakdown does not take place, target for sales will be the level of 0.9200.

As per estimates of Swiss National Bank, GDP in Switzerland will amount to 1.5%-2.0% this year; main growth will be attributed to the results of the first part of the year. SNB noted in the comments that if stringent monetary measures had not been taken the economy would have slipped to a recession. SNB expects that inflation will be at the level of 0.4% in 2011 and at the level of 0.3% next year.

Unemployment rate in Switzerland rose to 2.9%, which had been an expected rise from 2.8%. It became known last week that trade balance in Switzerland amounted to 2.15 billion francs in October against the forecast of 2.06 billion francs. The data is good, considering global slump in demand and expensive Franc. Trade surplus in Switzerland amounted to 1850 billion SHF in September. It became known earlier that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 0.84 points in September against the revised level of 0.80 points in August.  Taking into account that the data reflects the figures of the months when SNB has fixed the rate of the Franc, the index looks very much positive.

At the end of last week, interest of players was drawn to the block of statistics from Switzerland. Thus, retail sales decreased by 0.2% y/y in October against a decline of 1.4% y/y earlier. GDP rose by 0.2% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of growth of 0.1% q/q (1.7% y/y). ). The data on quarterly basis was positive, indicating that efforts of the Central Bank to curb the rates of the Franc are effective. Last Thursday Swiss government stated that they are prepared to lower interest rate to negative levels in order to use all available means to fight against the rise of Franc. At the same time, politicians noted that the most effective tools are in the hands of SNB. Representative of SNB Mr. Jordan reported earlier that Swiss regulator does not need external guidance on monetary policy, as it is an independent institution and does not intend to receive instructions from business groups and politicians. SNB will continue to take appropriate measures if it is required considering the state of economic forecasts and deflation. According to him, slowdown in economic growth in Switzerland, which had taken place earlier, was caused by high exchange rate of Swiss Franc.

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