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At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate has dramatically weakened; apparently Swiss regulator took part in trades at the beginning of the week fighting off attacks of speculators.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD begun to grow in the positive area, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is still in the overbought zone and maintains a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of break down at the level of 0.9380, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9390 and 0.9410.  If upward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

Judging by the currencies quotes, yesterday’s negative sentiments at the market promoted to the increase of those who want to sit out uneasy time in the quiet harbor, aiming at Franc’s rate, and CHB firmly protects its interests. As a result, Franc has weakened more significantly.

Today, SECO released economic forecast according to which economic growth in Switzerland will amount to 0.5% in 2012 against the previous expectations of growth of 0.9%.

A meeting of Swiss National Bank will be held this week, it is possible that the Bank will make   decisions about negative rate of Libor and the rise in the exchange rate of Franc to Euro. Earlier, Swiss government stated that they are prepared to lower interest rate to negative levels in order to use all available means to fight against the rise of Franc. At the same time, politicians noted that the most effective tools are in the hands of SNB.

As per estimates of Swiss National Bank, GDP in Switzerland will amount to 1.5%-2.0% this year; main growth will be attributed to the results of the first part of the year. SNB noted in the comments that if stringent monetary measures had not been taken the economy would have slipped to a recession. SNB expects that inflation will be at the level of 0.4% in 2011 and at the level of 0.3% next year.

Earlier, interest of players was drawn to the block of statistics from Switzerland. Thus, retail sales decreased by 0.2% y/y in October against a decline of 1.4% y/y earlier. GDP rose by 0.2% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of growth of 0.1% q/q (1.7% y/y). ). The data on quarterly basis was positive, indicating that efforts of the Central Bank to curb the rates of the Franc are effective. Statistics of this week showed that unemployment rate in Switzerland remained at the level of 3.1% in November. In addition, CPI fell by 0.2% m/m in November, while expected growth had been of 0.1%. Inflation is clearly affected by external background.

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