CHF: Swiss Franc is quiet at the beginning of this week

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate almost stands still at the beginning of this week in anticipation of a large block of information during the next five sessions.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD is going down in the positive area, giving a sell signal; volumes remain above average.  Stochastic Oscillator is still in the overbought zone and maintains a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of break down at the level of 0.9270, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9280 ? 0.9295.  If upward breakdown does not take place, target for sales will be the level of 0.9200.

Today, investors are waiting for the employment data, excluding agricultural sector in Q3. A meeting of Swiss National Bank will be held this week, it is possible that the Bank will make   decisions about negative rate of Libor and the rise in the exchange rate of Franc to Euro.

Earlier, Swiss government stated that they are prepared to lower interest rate to negative levels in order to use all available means to fight against the rise of Franc. At the same time, politicians noted that the most effective tools are in the hands of SNB.

Earlier, interest of players was drawn to the block of statistics from Switzerland. Thus, retail sales decreased by 0.2% y/y in October against a decline of 1.4% y/y earlier. GDP rose by 0.2% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of growth of 0.1% q/q (1.7% y/y). ). The data on quarterly basis was positive, indicating that efforts of the Central Bank to curb the rates of the Franc are effective. Statistics of this week showed that unemployment rate in Switzerland remained at the level of 3.1% in November. In addition, CPI fell by 0.2% m/m in November, while expected growth had been of 0.1%. Inflation is clearly affected by external background.

As per estimates of Swiss National Bank, GDP in Switzerland will amount to 1.5%-2.0% this year; main growth will be attributed to the results of the first part of the year. SNB noted in the comments that if stringent monetary measures had not been taken the economy would have slipped to a recession. SNB expects that inflation will be at the level of 0.4% in 2011 and at the level of 0.3% next year.

 

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